Tracking Omicron (B.1.1.529), and what to expect in the days ahead.
The Omicron variant has been detected across the globe. What does the future hold?
Hi everyone, happy Sunday!
For a primer on the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529), check out my post from earlier.
The Omicron variant has now been identified in several countries across the globe, and has sparked global travel restrictions and bans. I, and many epidemiologists, physicians, virologists, etc, have thoughts on why travel bans rarely work and can instead be punitive and discriminatory, but we can talk about that in another post.
I want to preface this with this: it is NOT surprising that countries across the world are reporting cases of Omicron. In fact, I would expect MANY more countries to report in the coming few days, including the US. We live in a global world with porous borders and plentiful travel. Please do not take this as a sign of alarm or panic. We must not be carefree, but at the same time, there is not reason to panic, just yet.
This is by no means an exhaustive post, and I’ll write a lot more posts with updates as they come in, so be sure to subscribe below to get these updates delivered to your email inbox!
So besides the Southern African region, where else has the Omicron variant been identified so far? BNO News has a reliable tracker that you can keep up to date with. This is a screenshot taken of the map on 28th Nov 2021, showing countries with cases so far:
Hong Kong
Hong Kong confirmed 2 cases of Omicron on Nov 26th, linked to travelers from the Southern African region.
Europe
Several countries in Europe have detected Omicron, including the UK, Belgium Germany, Czech Republic, the Netherlands, and Italy. 61 people arriving in the Netherlands on two flights from South Africa tested positive for COVID-19, and 13 of them were confirmed to be caused by the Omicron variant. News of cases across Europe was followed by a flurry of travel bans restricting flights from Southern Africa. Many European countries were already struggling with spikes in COVID-19 cases - this just adds to the mess.
Australia, Canada
Australia, as well as Canada, also just confirmed cases of Omicron. In Canada, the cases confirmed were AFTER they had instituted a travel ban from Southern Africa. Once again, this shows how ineffective blanket travel bans are. The cases are ALREADY in the country! This is like shutting the barn door after the horse has bolted.
Israel
Israel confirmed a few cases as well and went as far as to ban ALL foreigners from traveling to the country. Now the country, which has struggled with COVID-19 over the last year, will work to try and contain this variant.
What about the United States?
So far, there have been no reported cases of Omicron in the United States per the CDC. However, I have no doubt in my mind that we already have cases and just haven’t diagnosed them yet. Remember, the US opened travel back up just a few weeks ago, and the first Omicron cases is suspected to have been from a swab taken from a patient on Nov 9th — with people traveling, that’s a whole 3 weeks for the virus to travel across the world.
What happens next?
I will once again take a moment to caution everyone against panicking. In the next few days we will likely see reports from many more countries reporting cases of Omicron.
Now, it is STILL extremely early, and we do not have answers to major questions such as:
How transmissible is this variant?
How deadly is this variant?
What is the risk to those who have recovered from prior infection, and those who are vaccinated? Do the vaccines still work?
Over the next few days and weeks we will see these questions answered. Researchers and scientists around the world are hard at work. The researchers that initially sounded the alarm in South Africa and neighboring countries must be lauded and appreciated - thanks to their quick action, we now know about Omicron’s existence and are able to react appropriately.
As always, I will keep updating you all on new developments as they happen. Thank you for reading.
Remember: the BEST way to protect yourself from COVID-19 is to get vaccinated and boosted.
Stay safe!
Dr. Siyab
Am I going to be ok flying?
Thank you for these emails. I don’t have much time for social media so I like to get updates from someone I trust