Study shows risk of myocarditis far higher from COVID infection than the vaccine
The results are striking and overwhelmingly in favor of the vaccine.
There continues to be a lot of noise from the anti-vax camp about the risk of myocarditis from the vaccines. They blow it out of proportion (both the incidence and severity) and fail to recognize the far higher risk of myocarditis from COVID infection.
There is a new study out in Nature that examined the risks of myocarditis from the vaccines, and compared it to that from COVID infection. The results are striking and overwhelmingly in favor of the vaccine. Let’s talk about it.
They studied over 38 million adults (38,615,491) adults in England’s health system who had been vaccinated with either AstraZeneca, Pfizer/BioNTech or the Moderna vaccine. The vast majority (over 32 million) had been vaccinated with 2 doses. They also included people that had COVID infection (either before or after vaccination). Then they looked at rates of myocarditis, pericarditis and cardiac arrhythmias (abnormal heart rhythms) in these people over the study period.
Let’s talk about the myocarditis part (pericarditis and arrhythmia are similar).
Myocarditis
1,615 people admitted to hospitals or died from myocarditis. That’s 0.004% of the whole cohort of 38 million + people. Of these, 359 (22%) had had COVID at some point, and 287 had COVID prior to getting vaccinated.
The highest risk of myocarditis after vaccine was within 1 week of the first dose of AstraZeneca (1.76x), Pfizer/BioNTech (1.5x), Moderna (8x), and second dose of Pfizer (1.8x) and Moderna (23x - although the confidence intervals here are very wide [6-83]). Following COVID infection, the rates were highest within 1 week (21x), and reduced but still high thereafter (11x on day 15-29). Much higher than the vaccine.
Vaccine vs infection
Here’s the main point of the article: Within the 1st 28 days of first vaccination dose, they estimated, per million:
AstraZeneca: 2 extra events of myocarditis.
Pfizer: 1 extra event of myocarditis
Moderna: 6 extra events of myocarditis
After 2 doses of Moderna, there were an extra 10 events per million of myocarditis.
Within 1-28 days of COVID infection, they estimated 40 extra events per million.
Here’s a nice pictorial representation from the study
The risk of myocarditis after Pfizer/Moderna vaccine was limited to those under 40 years of age. The study did not separate out younger ages.
What does this mean?
This is a comprehensive analysis. This tells us that the risk of vaccine-related myocarditis is highest within the first few days of vaccination, which we already knew. In comparison, the risk of myocarditis (and pericarditis and arrhythmia) is FAR HIGHER WITH COVID INFECTION, which we also already knew.
The risk was higher for Moderna than for Pfizer, and this may be related to the higher dose of mRNA in the vaccine - which is why in a lot of countries including the US, the Pfizer vaccine is recommended for younger adults.
All myocarditis is not the same, and viral myocarditis from COVID infection is far worse.
You also have to remember, all myocarditis is not the same. There is a plethora of studies that now show that vaccine myocarditis is by far extremely mild and easily treatable. On the other hand, viral myocarditis, which is from a viral infection such as COVID, can be FAR worse and FAR more severe. This is along with all the other issues caused by COVID infection.
You may have heard scary sounding numbers like “20% 1 year mortality for myocarditis”, or “50% 5-year mortality for myocarditis.” That is the number for VIRAL myocarditis, which can be severe. It is NOT applicable to vaccine myocarditis. The studies just haven’t shown it to be true.
What does it mean for you and your family?
A few things:
Vaccine myocarditis is VERY RARE, and much rarer than COVID myocarditis. Vaccine myocarditis is also mild and easily treatable, while COVID myocarditis can be severe and deadly.
The risk of vaccine myocarditis is for young male adults who are under ~30 years of age. If you are 65 years old or female, this does not apply to you. COVID on the other hand, does not care about age or gender.
If you are worried about getting your young kids vaccinated, don’t be. The Pfizer vaccine is approved for <18 in the US, and it has shown EXCELLENT safety. Over 5 million children 5-11 have been vaccinated in the US, and there have been no reports of vaccine myocarditis yet.
Now, I’m not saying that the vaccine won’t cause myocarditis or that we won’t see reports of it. Not at all. I acknowledge the risk. However, the risk needs to be quantified and compared to the risk of COVID infection. It is clear that COVID is far more dangerous than the vaccine. And at this point, everyone is going to get COVID at some point.
If you are on the fence about the vaccine for yourself or your kids, I hope this helps make your decision. Please continue to look for scientific, evidence based data to make your decision and not what some random person on the internet tells you to do, including myself. Verify everything but use credible sources, not Twitter or Facebook or Instagram.
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Great article! Thanks for the update.