Omicron spreads in the US, but Delta remains the biggest threat
Omicron now identified across 12 states, but Delta is still >99% of cases
Happy Sunday friends,
Since the announcement early last week of the first confirmed case of Omicron variant in the US in California, the variant has now been detected across the country. By latest count, there are at least 20 cases, across at least 11 states. Remember, this is not surprising - Omicron was probably already in the US well before it was first detected in California.
We still don’t know a whole lot about how Omicron spreads or affects people, but we do know a little more now than we did last week. Here’s the bullet points:
Community transmission
There is now confirmed community transmission in the United States and globally. The patient from Minnesota had no international travel, and had recently traveled back from a convention in New York. In fact, they met with 35 of their friends in New York, and about half of them have tested positive for COVID-19 (unclear if Omicron). Of note, the convention had over 50,000 people at it - it may well turn out to be a super spreader event, but that remains to be seen.
Community transmission has also been confirmed elsewhere in the world (besides the Southern African region). It was already in Europe well before South African scientists rang the alarm bells.
Travel bans rarely work for this reason - the horse is already out of the barn. Unless you ban 100% of travel from everywhere, you’re likely not making a dent, and 100% travel bans are not possible logistically. Banning travel arbitrarily from only a few countries is discriminatory and unfair.
Symptoms and vaccine efficacy
The cases so far vary in terms of vaccination status, symptoms and travel history. Many of them are fully vaccinated (some with a booster). However, all the cases so far are mild, and no one has required hospitalization. This is good news.
Early reports from South African doctors also noted mild symptoms in patients infected by the Omicron variant. However, this does not definitively mean that Omicron can’t cause severe illness. People may still be at risk of severe disease and death, especially the unvaccinated. Just like with all the other variants.
The fact that the vaccinated cases are mild and none have required hospitalization is an early encouraging sign that vaccination (+booster) may continue to provide excellent protection from the Omicron variant. We still await good data on vaccine efficacy.
Transmissibility?
We still do not have any good data yet on the transmissibility of Omicron. Per the WHO, some early reports are suggesting that it may be more transmissible, but again, this is really just anecdotal at this point and we need a bit more time before we can get reliable data.
Also remember, the real question is whether Omicron is more transmissible than delta. Delta is the most transmissible variant we know of to-date, and if a variant can outpace it, that would be a real cause for concern.
It may just be that Omicron is very transmissible but less severe - as in, it infects a lot of people easily but the disease caused is mild. But, time will tell.
Reminder - Delta is STILL the biggest threat
With all this fuss over Omicron, it is easy to lose sight of the fact that the dominant variant in the US is STILL Delta, and we are far from out of the woods. The winter Delta surge in the US is well underway, we are seeing 100,000 cases a day, and hospitalizations are above 50,000 cases a day:
Our enemy currently is still the Delta variant. The best way to protect yourself is to get vaccinated, social distance when possible, and wear a mask in crowded settings. Add to that adequate ventilation and frequent testing as well.
That’s all for now friends. Be back with more later. Stay safe!
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Dr. Siyab
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