New SARS-CoV-2 variant (Omicron; B.1.1.529) - What do we know so far?
Hello everyone,
As I mentioned on my TikTok video earlier, we have a new SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) variant on our hands, the B.1.1.529. Now remember, this is still VERY NEW - we identified it in the last week or so, and that any and all information on it is VERY preliminary, and can (and probably will) change very quickly. The media has already run amok with this, but please do not panic. We need to give time for the science to be done, so we can learn more about it.
In their emergency meeting today, the WHO classified this variant as a variant of concern, and named it Omicron (the Greek alphabet designations of variants). Alpha, Beta, Mu, Gamma, Delta, etc are the Greek names of some other variants.
With that being said, let’s talk about what we know so far. This is by no means an exhaustive post, and I’ll write a lot more posts with updates as they come in, so be sure to subscribe below to get these updates delivered to your email inbox!
Where/when was it identified?
The Omicron variant was first reported around 24th Nov 2021, but the first case diagnosed came from a sample from a patient on 9th Nov 2021 in South Africa. However, dozens of cases have been identified in the broader Southern African region, including Botswana. Since then, cases have also been identified in Hong Kong, Belgium (Europe’s first case) and Israel, among other counties. Given that the first case dates back to almost 3 weeks ago, it is likely that this has spread to other countries as well.
It is important to note that only about 25% of South Africa is fully vaccinated. Yes, only 25%!!! This this low vaccination rate has possibly played a part in the emergence of this variant, among other factors
What makes it concerning?
What has been cause for alarm in scientific communities and governments worldwide is the number of mutations that this variant carries. Now remember, each variant of SARS-CoV-2 has one or more mutations that make it different from the original variant. Also remember, there are likely thousands of variants - the majority of them have no real significance because the mutations they have don’t offer the variant an edge over the others, or these mutations just make the variant weaker and it dies out. On the other hand, there are some variants, like the Delta variant, whose mutations make it much stronger and able to spread faster.
With B.1.1.529, both the large number AND kinds of mutations are concerning. It has over 30 mutations in the spike protein and elsewhere in the virus. Now, how these mutations will change thee behavior of the virus remains to be seen and intense research is underway.
In my mind, the main questions that need to be answered are:
Do these mutations make the variant more transmissible? Do they make it easier for the virus to enter our body’s cells? Do they make it easier for the virus to replicate and make a lot more copies of itself (aka higher viral load)? The comparison here is the Delta variant - which has shown to be the most transmissible variant to-date. If Omicron proves to spread faster than Delta can, that could spell trouble. Early signs show that these mutations may make it more transmissible, but we do not know for sure yet.
Do these mutations make the variant deadlier than the other variants? There is no evidence so far that they do, but it also remains to be seen.
Can this variant escape the body’ immune system? Early signs show that these mutations may make it easier for the variant to escape our immune system in some way, but we do not know for sure yet.
Are the vaccines going to work against this variant? Do what degree do we see a reduction in efficacy? Will the current vaccines need to be reformulated?
I’m sure there are other questions I have missed, but in my mind these are some of the important questions. I advise caution and not panic here - we do not know the answers to these questions, and we need to be patient and wait for the science to be done. The media has a tendency to run amok with headlines, and leave the science behind to catch up. Do not panic!
Regarding the vaccines, this variant will probably not be 100% resistant to the vaccines. I’ll write post on vaccines and Omicron later, but the way our current vaccines work, they will likely continue to protect against severe disease and death from COVID-19 caused by this variant.
Can we test for the Omicron variant?
One piece of good news with this variant so far is that it is easy to test for with a PCR test (link to YouTube video from the South African Ministry of Health), unlike some of the other variants such as the Delta variant. With the Delta variant, the only way to test for it was to send off a sample for genomic sequencing (examining the entire genome of the virus) to see if it was Delta. The regular PCR test could only tell you if it was SARS-CoV-2 or not (and not specifically delta). Genomic sequencing adds an extra step, can be expensive for some countries, and logistically hard to do for every single COVID case. It also made it much harder to get a true estimate of how prevalent it was or how fast it was spreading, and therefore made managing it harder as well.
With B.1.1.529 however, it can be detected easily with a PCR test. This means we do not have to take the extra step of sending a sample for genome sequencing. This means that it is much easier for us to test for and track this variant. This is good, because it means we can manage it better.
Is it more transmissible?
As I mentioned earlier, there are some early signs that this variant is more transmissible.
The graph above from the Financial Times shows that Omicron spread rapidly in South Africa, even faster than the Delta variant. It quickly accounted for a major share of new cases within days of emergence, much faster compared to Delta or Beta.
There is concern that Omicron may trigger a new wave of COVID-19 in South Africa due to this. However, it’s important to remember that this may just be a temporary rise in cases - as the total number of cases is small. Still, we need to be cautious and monitor things closely.
What now?
I’ll end this post here - I hope this was enough to give you a brief overview of what’s going on with this variant. I will write a lot more as new knowledge comes in, and of course you can always follow along on my TikTok and Instagram (see below).
There will undoubtably be a ton of misinformation about this variant, as we have seen throughout the pandemic. I’ll be here with you to fight it and bring you evidence based information on Omicron, as it becomes available.
Remember, our best defense against COVID-19 remains getting vaccinated, and boosted. THERE IS NO VARIANT TO-DATE THAT HAS SHOWN TO BE RESISTANT TO THE VACCINES. Please continue to protect yourself, and your loved ones by getting vaccinated.
More later. Thank you for reading! Please do share this with your friends/family if you found this helpful