CDC releases details on 43 cases of Omicron variant in the US so far.
The majority of cases were in the vaccinated and were mild. This is encouraging data that the vaccines are working!
The CDC released a new report yesterday on what it knows so far about 43 cases of Omicron detected so far in the United States. As a refresher, the first Omicron case in the US was identified December 1st. Since then, at least 22 states have reported cases across the country. This CDC report covers 43 cases as of Dec 8th. Let’s go through the facts:
25 (58%) in persons aged 18-19, 58% female.
14 (33%) had recent international travel in the 14 days prior to positive test.
20 (47%) were vaccinated, with 14 (33%) having had a booster dose as well (unclear timing of booster dose).
6 (14%) had prior COVID-19 infection (unclear who was vaccinated).
The majority of patients had mild symptoms - cough, fatigue, runny nose, and cold like symptoms.
One vaccinated person was hospitalized for 2 days (unclear details), and there were no deaths.
OK, let’s unpack this. First, these are just 43 cases, which is a VERY SMALL, highly selected sample size, so we cannot make any broad declarations from this, but we can infer some possibilities. There are probably more cases that just haven’t been diagnosed yet.
Community spread
Only 33% of the cases had recent international travel. This means that the Omicron variant is already spreading in the community, and may have been spreading far before it was first detected in South Africa - no one knows for sure.
“Why are so many Omicron cases in the vaccinated?!”
The majority of cases are in vaccinated people. I KNOW that this is going to be an antivax propaganda point. I can already hear it. Several reasons that I can think of but mainly selection bias, really:
These are just FORTY-THREE cases. At this point, the US is recording >100,000 COVID-19 infections PER DAY. ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND CASES, the vast majority of which are in the unvaccinated.
There is a huge selection bias. The US likely imported Omicron at some point over the last few weeks - travelers are likely to be vaccinated due to travel requirements.
Vaccinated people may be more likely to get tested if they have concerning symptoms.
Base rate fallacy: 60% of the US is fully vaccinated at this point, so it makes sense that more vaccinated people are infected.
Again, these are just 43 cases - a small and highly selected group of people. The fact that the majority of symptoms in vaccinated folks were mild, is an indication that the vaccine continues to protect against severe disease from Omicron. Unfortunately, we do not have details on the one vaccinated person that was hospitalized.
We also do not have much data yet on how Omicron affects the unvaccinated in the US. However I would not expect it to be any different than any other variant or the original virus: the unvaccinated are likely at far higher risk of infection, severe disease, hospitalization and death from Omicron (or any other variant) than the vaccinated.
The fact that the majority of cases were in the vaccinated does not mean that this is vaccine failure or the vaccine doesn’t work. Remember, no vaccine is 100%, and this vaccine does not give you 100% protection from infection - breakthroughs still occur. However, protection from severe disease and death is still extremely high, and this early data from CDC is very encouraging.
So, please get vaccinated, and get your booster if you are eligible!
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